LOCKDOWN PHASE II

TPS

Should the Nationwide Lockdown be Extended?

“Germany, the then mightiest Military in the world was defeated and destroyed by Russian Winter. It changed the course of history of modern world. COVID-19 virus might just be defeated and destroyed in India by combination of impending high surface temperatures in coming months of Indian Summer, vaccination programme, 60 year old anti-malaria campaign and residues of spices in bone marrow of an ordinary Indian. If that happens, which is most likely, it will also change the strategic balance in international arena. Western world, USA and Russia included, will suffer to such an extent, both economically as well as human tragedy in form of fatalities (which might cross six figures) that their collective stature will be dwarfed by China in UN Security Council. Notwithstanding the stature growth in international arena, China will have to accept that she cannot bully India by ‘releasing’ COVID-19 virus or any other virus hidden in her labs. Indian Summers like the Russian Winter might change the course of history.”

It will be ironic if we do not accept the stark reality that we as a nation are simply not geared and equipped to handle epidemic of this magnitude since over the past 70 years or so, we have neglected the important issue of developing and upgrading medical facilities on a regular basis. Five star private hospitals are meant to promote medical tourism and few top medical facilities viz AIIMS etc are meant to take care of the politicians, their kith, kins, their cronies and rich and famous.

In spite of despicable standards of our existing medical facilities (even at a district headquarter level) available to an ordinary citizen, we might just escape the wrath of COVID-19 virus. However after the first COVID-19 case was detected on 30th January, our government went into overdrive to contain the spread of COVID-19 infections brought into the country by overseas travelers.

I sincerely hope that figures being circulated in the media about numbers infected and number of COVID-19 related fatalities are accurate and factual. We have an extremely serious limitation as on date. We simply do not have the capability to test many thousand, may be lakh, who may have been exposed to a COVID-19 infected person. Situation becomes even more grim when viewed in the context of unknown numbers of infected/exposed persons deliberately remaining in hiding. In true sense, therefore, we are ‘BHAGWAN BHAROSE’ and anti COVID-19 capability in our bone marrow acquired by default.

However in spite of all the gloom, the bright spark in our fight with COVID-19 has been pro-active and timely response of the government led by the PM himself. Nearly successful nationwide lockdown currently in vogue is a testimony to our resilience and oft questioned and quoted ‘Lack of Self Discipline’, which we are adept at in our much needed civilized behavior. One thing is absolutely clear; Indians will behave in a civilized manner only and only when the ‘law’ is enforced, a lesson for all of us, particularly those responsible for governance. Our PM’s outstanding leadership to reach out to every citizen at regular intervals during the period of gravest crisis affecting the mankind on ‘one on one basis’ is exemplary.

Lockdown created numerous problems; most appalling of these was trans-migration of working/labour force of the country. Watching video clips of groups of men, women, children of all ages walking towards their ‘homes’ on vacant highways was indeed heart rending. Advisors to PM obviously messed it up completely.

People are getting restive with nine more days to go for current lockdown period to get over by midnight 14th April, Babasaheb’s birthday.

Status of epidemic not only in India but the entire world is getting worse by the day. Western nations with highly advanced health care facilities have been overwhelmed and find themselves incapable of neutralizing/minimizing the onslaught of COVID-19.

All nations having a large Chinese migratory population have suffered exponentially. We have been fortunate to have miniscule Chinese migratory population in the country in spite of huge trade with China, which is largely containerized.

A little digression at this stage would highlight our fundamental strength, which we have inherited from our ancestors and relates to form of greeting most Indians adhere to. World at large has understood the outstanding message of  Indian way of greeting with ‘NAMASTE’ and ‘AADAAB’ as far more practical and healthy than the greeting mannerism practiced by western nations viz shaking of hands and a peck on the cheek. Indeed ‘Munna Bhai’s JHAPPI’, too has been consigned to the dustbin.

What do we need to do post 14th April? Discontinuance of nationwide lockdown would result in Indians pouring out of their homes like ‘ants’, irrespective of the fact whether one needed to go out or not. As was evident post 9 pm on 22 March, the Janta Curfew day. Let us learn to stay indoors unless absolutely essential, at least for another 75 days i.e. till 30th June.

Let us examine where we are as on 5th April;

  • COVID-19 infected patients are still in existence all over the country.
  • Our testing facilities are grossly inadequate to test the target groups in large numbers in spite of emergency measures adopted. Hence we actually do not know the actual extent of infection, which remains undetected.
  • Extent of COVID-19 infection in Pakistan and Bangla Desh is not actually known. Keeping in view the porous borders, transit of infected persons to and fro from these nations, Pakistan, in particular cannot be ruled out.
  • Having seen the rate at which COVID-19 can spread, Pakistan may be inclined to resorting to sending infected persons in Indian territory, using it as a ‘weapon’ targeting Military formations in J&K region in the north and Kutch region in the west. News on social media about Pakis transporting COVID-19 patients to POK region must be viewed with the concern it deserves. Let us be absolutely clear; we simply cannot seal the land and sea borders with Pakistan.
  • Should we reach the Community Transmission stage, we simply will have to accept the casualties and infected persons figure touching six, may be seven figures.
  • On previous occasions of a virus attack viz SARS in 2002-3 and MERS in 2012, the numbers infected and fatalities were miniscule but the virus took nearly SIX MONTHS to subside.
  • If that parameter was to be taken as base figure, we can safely assume that COVID-19 will remain active at least till 30th June, 2020.
  • I have prepared a statistical graph of progress of COVID-19 infections in China and India virtually on daily basis wef 30th Jan till 5th April, 67th day since we detected the first case in India on 30th
  • The graph showed a probable date as 7th April, when we would have been able to control the pandemic. However this is no longer valid courtesy ‘MARKAZ’ fiasco.

Extension of lockdown might, rather will be counter productive to our fragile economy. In fact yet again the advisors to PM failed him because the advisors failed to differentiate between lockdown and shut down, possibly because of poor understanding of English language. What we did was a shut down while planning for lockdown.

At the same time allowing pre 22nd March status to resume would also not be desirable. We will need to examine and prioritize which sectors/facilities must stay closed and which activity must resume. Partial lockdown till at least 30th June, 2020 might be a prudent choice. Given below are the suggested options.

Immediate Measures

What Should Stay Closed;

  • All educational institutions must shut down for summer vacations in plains. In the hill districts educational institutions must remain shut till at least 31st May, 2020 or the confirmation of ‘NIL’ COVID-19 infection in that state, whichever is later.
  • All movie theatres must remain closed till 31st
  • All sporting events viz football, cricket matches etc must be postponed and held after 30th
  • No religious congregations must be allowed till 30th
  • No political rally must be allowed till 30th
  • All swimming pools in hotels, clubs etc. till 30th
  • International Carriers must be banned till 30th
  • All places of worship till 30th
  • All public parks, zoos, museums till 30th
  • No cultural events to be allowed in auditoriums.
  • Metro rail operations to stay suspended till 30th To be commenced only after review.
  • Normal passenger train operations to stay suspended till 30th
  • Public transport viz buses etc to stay off road till 30th

What Should be Opened;

  • All commercial activity related to transportation of goods by road.
  • Till 30th April all Toll Plazas in entire country must remain open for traffic and no charges should be levied. It will ensure much faster flow of traffic without any stoppage, the need of the hour.
  • Special flights of Indian Carriers only may be allowed to operate for diplomats with frequency not exceeding once a month to just one selected destination in each country.
  • From 1st May Indian Carriers may be permitted to operate limited flights to major cities the world over provided all arriving passengers agree to 10 day quarantine in selected location as decided by Govt of India (every passenger cannot be quarantined in and around Delhi only).
  • Foreign carriers on case by case basis to be allowed into India only after 30th September, preferably 31st
  • All government offices with only 50% staff at work till 15th
  • All manufacturing units with the restriction of not more than 100 persons per shift.
  • Only long distance train viz Rajdhani etc to commence operations.

 

Long Term Measures

  • Let the gross neglect of past 70 years in creating medical facilities at district level become a thing of past. Kindly direct all MPs and MLAs of each district/area to use the entire MPLAD fund towards creating medical facilities aimed at facing such crisis in future. Rajya sabha MPs to donate the MPLAD fund to the state from which they were elected.
  • Our target should be to create FIVE LAKH BEDS distributed on the basis of population of the region/state in the entire country.
  • This would mean one bed for every 2600 citizens. WHO recommendations are one bed for every 2000 citizens.
  • COVID-19 epidemic will reappear unless the last infected person has been tracked and cured. We must observe partial lockdown at least up to 30th June, 2020.
  • On topmost priority set up a multi-disciplinary task force to evaluate the issues related with such pandemic and recommend time bound solutions. That is the only way forward to enable us to face the next pandemic, if and when it happens. Amend the existing pandemic law of British era.

Finally, it is the citizens, who will have to rise to the occasion and protect themselves by observing strict norms of hygiene and resist the temptation to gather in large numbers at least till 30th June.

Gp Capt TP Srivastava

9818926254

5th April, 2020

Published by TPS

Born in a legal practitioner’s family of repute in 1950, I chose to serve the finest institution of any nation, The Military. Over three decades with the IAF, I spent nearly quarter century sitting in the close confines of magnificent flying machines viz MiG-21 and MiG-29, a different world altogether. I have had the opportunity to walk the corridors of power and witness profligate governance by the politicians and bureaucrats alike with military leadership not lagging too far behind. I have traveled extensively across Middle East, South East Asia, most of Europe, China and the USA. I have authored a book titled “Profligate Governance--- Implications for National Security” dealing with national and international affairs, specific military affairs, geo-strategic scenario etc. In the twilight of my life my interest revolves around improving standards of Primary Education in the country. Whatever I save from my pension goes towards establishing libraries for children in village schools.

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